Just over a month ago, with the 2024 J1 League season into its second half, Machida Zelvia were firmly on course to pull off a footballing miracle.
In their first season ever in Japanese football’s top flight, Zelvia — who were playing in the third tier as recently as in 2015 — found themselves top of the table with a five-point lead after winning a top-of-the-table clash with Gamba Osaka on June 30, while Kashima Antlers — who were tied for second place — also fell to defeat on the same day.
But with a current slump in form which was seen Zelvia go winless in their past three outings, what was shaping up to be an incredible title triumph now looks increasingly uncertain.
And it isn’t just one or two sides that Zelvia have to be keeping a cautious eye on.
Sunday’s shock loss to relegation-battling Shonan Bellmare may not have immediately seemed overly damaging given they retained a three-point lead over second-placed Kashima, who also lost.
Nonetheless, while there was originally a healthy 12-point margin between Zelvia and then fifth-placed Sanfrecce Hiroshima a month ago, the top five are now just separated by five points.
While the closest challengers have not fully capitalised on Zelvia’s recent stumbles, the inconsistency that has plagued the leading pack has now allowed others to enter the picture.
Although recent J1 League seasons have delivered two-horse races at best, the title battle in 2024 is well and truly alive with 12 rounds remaining.
So, if it will not be a fairy tale for Zelvia, currently on 50 points, who could be crowned champions?
KASHIMA ANTLERS
- Current position: 2nd (47 points)
- Last six games: L-W-L-W-W-L
At one stage looming as the team likeliest to hunt down Zelvia, Kashima are actually on a poorer run of form than the leaders over the past six matches.
Arguably overly reliant on star man Yuma Suzuki, it perhaps comes as no coincidence that their recent inconsistency has coincided with their talismanic striker netting just once since the end of June.
The Antlers’ strongest XI remains a formidable outfit and the likes of Aleksandar Čavrić, Kimito Nono and Shintaro Nago have done their best to ease the burden on Suzuki.
The main worry for coach Ranko Popović will be their arduous run home, which — in addition to a couple of top-five opponents — also includes hardly straightforward ties against Urawa Red Diamonds, Kawasaki Frontale, Nagoya Grampus and Cerezo Osaka.
If they can reach the final round of the campaign still in the running, expect a decider that promises fireworks — with Kashima entertaining Zelvia to close out the season.
SANFRECCE HIROSHIMA
- Current position: 3rd (46 points)
- Last six games: D-L-W-W-W-W
The most in-form side in the entire competition on a four-game winning streak, Sanfrecce have come from 12 points off the pace to put themselves firmly in the reckoning for a fourth J1 League crown — and first since 2015.
Sanfrecce’s biggest strength has been their irrepressible attack that has racked up a competition-high 46 goals and positive differential of 21.
While Yuki Ohashi has since earned a move to Europe with Blackburn Rovers after leading the way with 11 goals, Sanfrecce could have made a crucial midseason acquisition in the form of Tolgay Arslan — who came off the bench and scored a match-winning brace in Sunday’s crucial win over Cerezo in only his second appearance since joining from Melbourne City.
The Hiroshima-based outfit could however be victims of their success given they are also still competing in the Emperor’s Cup and J.League Cup, to go along with upcoming continental commitments in the new AFC Champions League Two — which kicks off on Sept. 17.
Whether they are capable of juggling multiple competitions could determine if they will lift silverware — and how many exactly — come the end of the year.
GAMBA OSAKA
- Current position: 4th (46 points)
- Last six games: L-W-W-L-D-D
With just eight points from a possible 18 since they lost to Zelvia, Gamba have been the poorest performers out of the current top five.
Gamba’s stability at the back has served them well with a competition-best 18 goals conceded but they certainly need improvement in attack with their 28 goals scored the second worst in the top half of the league.
Their inability to find a route to goal easily has proven especially costly with their failure to score in the last three games resulting in a loss and two draws.
It certainly has not helped that Gamba have played the most part of the campaign without a recognised striker and instead have utilised former Bayern Munich man Takashi Usami as a false nine.
Unless they can turn things around soon, starting with this weekend’s crunch clash with Vissel, Gamba might soon find themselves out of the reckoning.
VISSEL KOBE
- Current position: 5th (45 points)
- Last six games: W-W-D-D-L-W
It may seem peculiar to suggest that the team in fifth are actually looming as the most dangerous threat to Zelvia, but make no mistake about it — Vissel Kobe are not going anywhere without a fight as they look to retain the title they waited so long for until last year’s maiden triumph.
Their recent record hardly makes for pleasant reading with just four wins in their past 12 league outings.
Yet, Vissel made a habit of grinding out results when it mattered most last season on their way to a maiden J1 League title.
In fact, Vissel’s past four victories have come against a couple of fellow challengers in Kashima and Sanfrecce, as well as two recent champions in Frontale and Yokohama F. Marinos.
In Yuya Osako and Yoshinori Muto, they also boast two genuine stars — who have already combined for 14 goals this term — capable of winning a match of their own boot, as the latter did with his brace in Sunday’s come-from-behind win over Marinos.
They may have not been anywhere near their best so far in 2024 but, with just a five-point deficit to make up, Vissel look in perfect striking position for a late-season charge.
